The outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic has become, without exaggeration, another challenge for humanity. On the one hand, it is about being able to quickly and efficiently identify the nature of the pathogen and to develop appropriate techniques and pharmaceuticals for treatment. On the other hand, an epidemic, not to mention a pandemic, will have an effect on the global economy. And the novel coronavirus is no exception.
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Even in the most optimistic scenario of the International Monetary Fund, if the coronavirus does not spread rapidly and China resumes production soon “the virus will likely cut off 0.1% from global growth, and drag down growth for China’s economy to 5.6%, which is 0.4% lower from its January outlook” (Saha).
A weekly market outlook conducted by Moody’s Analytics states that the Chinese coronavirus could become a “black swan” (an event that is difficult to predict and which has an impact on the economy), which will have a greater impact on the world economy than even the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 (Lonski).
Also, experts said that the spread of the Chinese coronavirus “will cost the world economy more than $ 280 billion in the first quarter of 2020 so that global GDP will not grow in q/q terms for the first time since 2009.” It will put an end to the continuous growth of world GDP, which has continued for 43 quarters in a row (Macadam).
No one knows how long the virus will last. Therefore the predicted economic consequences can be much worse. Today only one thing is clear: coronavirus “is a stark reminder of how a fragile recovery could be threatened by unforeseen events” (Feuer).
Feuer, William. “Coronavirus: IMF Chief Says the Outbreak Is the ‘Most Pressing Uncertainty’ for Global Economy.” CNBC, 19 Feb. 2020, www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/coronavirus-imf-chief-says-the-outbreak-could-derail-global-economic-growth.html.
Lonski, John. “Coronavirus May Be a Black Swan Like No Other.” WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK, edited by Reid Kanaley , Jan. 2020, pp. 2–5, https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1212580.
Macadam, Simon. “Coronavirus to End 43-Quarter Global Growth Streak.” Capital Economics, 7 Feb. 2020, www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics/global-economics-update/coronavirus-to-end-43-quarter-global-growth-streak/.
Saha, Sanghamitra. “Global Bond ETFs in a Sweet Spot on Coronavirus Scare.” Nasdaq, 25 Feb. 2020, www.nasdaq.com/articles/global-bond-etfs-in-a-sweet-spot-on-coronavirus-scare-2020-02-25.
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